For each season, the PDO and TAG phases were predicted using the transition probabilities between one-season phases from 1951 to the same season one year prior to make the prediction. For example, to predict June to August 2008 DCV phases, transition probabilities from March to May 1951 to June to August 2007 were used, along with March to May 2008 current DCV phases. Below are the probability time series of the predicted phase for each seasonal DCV (bars) and the observed seasonal DCV (line). The predicted phase with the larger probability was used in the one-season lead time dryness/wetness outlooks.
Choose an one-season lead time timeseries to display:
