For each season, the PDO and TAG phases were predicted using the transition probabilities between two-season phases from 1951 to the season one year prior to make the prediction. For example to predict September to November 2008, transition probabilities from March to May 1951 to September to November 2007 where used, along with March to May 2008 current DCV phases. Below are the probability time series of the predicted phase for each seasonal DCV (bars) and the observed seasonal DCV (line). The predicted phase with the larger probability was used in the two-season lead time dryness/wetness outlooks.
Choose a two-season lead time timeseries to display:
